WINGS Note: The Advocates for the Truth team have reported statistics for current allegations against US male workers:
US male workers with allegations who are still living – 100 (active and ex-workers)
US male workers with allegations who are deceased – 47
US male workers with allegations – uncertain whether dead or alive – 13
Current total US male workers with credible allegations – 160
The following report provides detailed analysis of prevalence.
Analysis of the Prevalence of Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) by Workers
John E. VanDenBerg, Ph.D.
October 10, 2024
The author’s history in the faith. Please note that I have the same name as my late cousin John T. VanDenBerg who had been removed from the work over CSA issues.
I was born and raised in the church, the third generation on both sides of my family. My great Aunt Grace Hoops was one of the first workers recruited in the U.S. I left the “Truth” (hereafter referred to as the church) over 56 years ago. Even though I am not a follower of the faith, I have seen the value of the church. My own late Mother and her numerous sisters, who were raised in poverty, had much more fulfilled lives due to the consistency of the church and stabilizing nature of going to meetings.
My initial response upon hearing about the CSA scandals was that it happens in all faiths.
However, when hearing that the scandal was a major crisis, I did wonder about the prevalence of abusers among the workers, and decided to examine the rate of CSA within workers. I want to be clear that I do not have the goal of harming the church. Rather, I am hoping that this analysis could be used by church leadership to deal with the current crisis related to CSA by workers, and to inform members and ex-members.
The CSA scandals. I believe in religious freedom, and want each person to choose their own religion as they wish. However, after reading about the large scale of CSA reports and as more victims came forward, I made discrete queries with nine cousins from my very large family. All were born and raised in the church but had later left. I asked them if any had been sexually abused by workers. Just within the nine cousins interviewed, there were five reported incidents with workers, ranging from grooming to rape.
My credentials and experience with men who commit CSA. I am a retired Ph.D. level child psychologist who has had extensive experience with men who commit CSA. In my consultation within prisons, I have worked with many imprisoned pedophiles. I don’t have extensive experience or training about women who are potential offenders, so I have focused this analysis solely on men.
Reasons why men may commit CSA. Many men with these tendencies become abusers because they were sexually abused as children (there is little evidence that genetics play a role), or they are from a family culture that illegally allows sexual activity between children and adults. Studies of men who commit CSA suggest that power and control by the man over the child is another factor, especially if the man committing the crime knows the child.
The effects of CSA on children. It goes without saying that being sexually abused is a horrible experience for children which often has a severe negative effect over their lifespan. The National Center for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorders cites some of the effects of CSA:
- Depression and thoughts of suicide
- Sexual anxiety and disorders, including promiscuity
- Difficulty maintaining appropriate boundaries with others, including enmeshed or avoidant relationships
- Poor body image and low self-esteem
In my own work with children who were sexually abused, I have observed that the betrayal of trust is a major factor in later life problems. Someone whom they trusted violated that trust, therefore all others might violate their trust. This can often lead to major relationship problems, including multiple divorces and lack of friends. In the church, workers are often put on a pedestal and are seen as respected authority figures. Therefore, when a worker commits CSA, the betrayal of trust is amplified.
Results of my analysis. I want to qualify this analysis as being limited due to the overall lack of accurate documentation within the church, which has minimal written materials beyond the Bible. I have depended on recently published sources from organizations who are studying and reporting on the CSA scandal within the church. These sources include interviews of former workers (non-abusers) and persons who were abused by workers. In addition, I did extensive interviews with a worker who had been accused of being an abuser and who had been removed from the ministry.
The numbers of workers is recorded differently depending on the source, but the numbers used in the following sections have been verified by at least two sources, but should be seen as approximate.
How many male workers in the US? In 2011, approximately 245 US living workers were males. These numbers are cited as approximate because of new workers coming on, workers leaving the work, and workers who have been removed from the work due to CSA allegations.
The data on overall CSA for men (not just workers). The incidence for all men who have admitted tendencies or who commit CSA is approximately 4% of all men. This data is argued within the field, and many population scientists say it is much higher. For this analysis, I will use the conservative 4% figure.
Applying the overall 4% number to the current approximately 245 male workers in the US. This means that if male workers in the US had the same general prevalence numbers, using the 4% figure, there would be approximately 10 male workers who were perpetrators, compared with all men. Even though there is evidence that CSA by workers has been occurring for many past decades, I have focused on present day workers who are living.
The present number of allegations against male workers in the US. Based on data from monitoring sites reported in the US (the FBI is currently actively investigating CSA within the church), there are currently allegations or convictions against over 100 living male workers in the US (unduplicated).
Prevalence of CSA for US male workers. This means that male workers who are alleged or actual perpetrators are over-represented many times compared to the percentage of all men. Again, the core data on workers is not well reported, and these are primarily allegations and not convictions, but I am comfortable saying that the prevalence of potential or actual CSA perpetrators who are workers is much higher, at least ten times higher, or 1,000 percent higher than the number of all men who have tendencies or who commit CSA. These numbers are estimated due to the lack of precise data, but I am using conservative data regarding CSA for workers.
Possible reasons for the high prevalence of reported CSA by workers.
Workers often stay in homes with children. Workers, by church policy, do not have homes of their own, but instead stay in the homes of members. For workers with these tendencies or who are actual CSA perpetrators, this gives them access to children on a regular basis. In some instances, individual workers may stay in a particular home for weeks or months. Workers do not have their own families by requirement. One worker I interviewed said that he had been raised in a large family with many children, and upon entering the ministry, was always glad to be around children. This does not mean that these workers are more likely to commit CSA, but if they are already conditioned to see children as sex objects, they would have high levels of access to children.
Celibacy requirements. Workers are supposed to be celibate, and they often enter the ministry between 19 and 24 years old. Many will have had no or little experience with sexual relationships. This means that many if not most workers would experience sexual repression. This does not mean that sexually repressed men are more likely to commit CSA, but it says that those who are inclined to do so may also be sexually repressed.
Lack of formal training on physical contact with children. Workers I interviewed reported zero actual training in this area, with no formal written guidelines on touch, hugging, etc. Workers who are visiting in homes are often highly valued guests, and children often idolize them and may initiate physical contact with them such as hugging or sitting by them. Any training done is largely through mentorship from their companion worker, who is often an older and more experienced worker and who may or may not address these issues.
In contrast, in graduate school to become a child psychologist, I was extensively trained on what was appropriate contact with children. For example, we were to avoid any physical contact such as hugging. We were not to see client children outside the physical or nearby presence of their parents or guardians. Violation of these rules would have meant we would be asked to leave the graduate program.
The “forgiveness” culture of the church itself. The culture of the church is largely based on the principle that as frail humans, we are weak compared to God. The messages from workers are often centered on the notion that even professing members have to guard against so-called “worldly” tendencies or faults. As a professing young teen, I was often told I was to be humble and to realize that I was a sinner at heart. I was trained that these sins would be forgiven with the proper repentance and profession of faith, no exceptions. Repentance of sins is frequently mentioned in the New Testament. Repentance is key to being forgiven of sins.
This means that workers who commit CSA, admit their offenses, and who repent having done them, will almost always believe that even if their CSA were a sin, they would be forgiven. This blanket forgiveness could subtly encourage deviant behaviors. In a sense, these core forgiveness beliefs could be a form of grooming, of minimizing the actual deviant behaviors, similar to what perpetrators often do in preparing victims for abuse.
What must be done? Apparently, there is some controversy within the overseers (senior male workers who oversee the ministry in a region or province) and workers about what should be done to prevent CSA or how to intervene with workers who have allegations or convictions for CSA. Some overseers have led efforts to ensure safety of children, but others have down played the dangers and numbers.
In my professional opinion, speaking as a former church member and an expert in CSA areas, the church must be reformed in at least the following areas:
- The culture of the church must support unconditional protection of children, with constant vigilance about ensuring potential offenders are not around children.
- The church must establish key standards for how to determine if a worker has committed CSA, to avoid false or inaccurate accusations, or to ensure that actions must be taken. If there is a reasonable suspicion that CSA commitment has occurred, law enforcement and child welfare authorities must be notified.
- Once their offenses are verified, offending workers must not be allowed back into meetings or conventions. As an alternative, offending workers should be restricted to meetings with other offenders or adult church members who volunteer to join these meetings.
- No workers should stay in homes with children. This would be a controversial decision, but if the church is serious about child protection, it must be implemented. Of course, in the course of being ministers, workers will be around families, but removing staying in homes would increase the protection of children.
- The leaders of the church must never move offenders to other areas or countries, but rather remove them from the church.
- Overseers and others who recruit young workers should weed out potential workers who have sexual attraction to children. This will require development of written criteria for becoming a worker. The church must develop and teach standards around workers’ physical contact with children and ensure that all new workers know and follow these standards. Overseers have selected a standardized instrument to use in this regard. If implemented with all workers, this would be a positive step.
End Note: Sources. The 4% figure used in this analysis comes primarily from the United States Sentencing Commission (2021), one of the most accurate of the sources for this type of information. Since the majority of sexual crimes go under-reported, the 4% figure is cited as conservative. In the literature for males who are sexual offenders, prevalence figures from reliable sources range from 3% to 16%. Even though the exact prevalence percentages are elusive, I stand by my statement that “I am comfortable saying that the prevalence of potential or actual CSA perpetrators who are workers is much higher, at least ten times higher, or 1,000 percent higher than the number of all men who have tendencies or who commit CSA”.
Submitted by John E. VanDenBerg, Ph.D. For comments about this analysis, contact John at jevdb1@gmail.com
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How many of the 100 have been removed from the work? This seems like a really important number, and I’m surprised by its omission.
It would also be interesting to know what’s the turnover rate of male workers, to determine what percentage of turnover is due to offenders being removed.
From my perspective …Just how many of the 100 sex abusive workers that have left the work isn’t particularly significant. That number is only significant to folks who for some strange reason wish to continue to support and identify themselves as part of this obviously sick and ungodly fellowship.
There are lots of opportunities for spiritual fellowship and development where sharing ones private home and children with clearly unsafe strangers is not expected. Why hang on to a grouping that so obviously excels best self-righteousness and hypocrisy at the same time that it disregards and dismisses CSA.
This is information is 💯spot on. Having been a Community Heath Nurse for more than 45 years I can say CSA & SA are huge issues in the community for child mental health issues. The rate in this fellowship is many times what I’ve seen even in the community and the outcomes are many times worse for those abused because if there is any place a child should be safe & feel safe, it’s in their own home with their parents or as an adult participating in what they’ve been raised in. But sadly reality paints a much different picture.
Having children sit around the table listening to workers who advise a child’s parents about what they must do, say, how they must behave not just as children but as adults, undermines parental authority & blurs the lines for children.
The reverence with which Workers /Overseers are treated while in a child’s home causes all guards to be lowered & leave children extremely vulnerable to abuse. All reverence should be reserved for our Savior & only our Savior.
Workers / Overseers should never stay overnight in our homes & share meals.
They need to live in a Batch setting only & work amongst the community to let the Light of Christ be seen, if it is within us.
CPS has a designation after a child abuse investigation called a “Failure to Protect”. Once we’ve heard the true risks of this “Fellowship” if we do nothing to protect our children, might we not be guilty? The Head in the Sand defense does not bode well in Court.
When young people give their life to the Lord & Offer for the ministry one would think they would safe from rape by Overseers & Brother Workers but repeatedly, this has not been the case.Then they are demeaned & demoralized if they speak up to warn others & try to prevent the same from happening again, to another.
I know this to be true because I attended a meeting with Ray Hoffman & another Overseer in May of 2012 as a witness to the young sister worker sharing sharing the truth of what she endured from an Overseer on a convention ground. Ray explained that it was not the first time this Overseer had been inappropriate with a woman. The sister worker reported the incident to the local police, as Ray told her she should, otherwise he could not remove the Offending Overseer from the ministry. But instead of facilitating the police investigation by telling the members to cooperate with the police – the Organization was protected, at all cost. Telling Friends – I’m not sure anything “Really” happened & it’s too bad the overseer had to leave the Work. Despicable. I was a witness. The story was indeed TRUE.
After professing for 47 years, our family has left this Fellowship & now focuses solely on serving our Lord & Savior, not the Overseers or Workers. We left because we refuse to be complicit in the abuse of children or adults. We received a clear message from the one who is the True Shepherd to his flock, not a hireling which saves the wolves & forgets to protect the vulnerable sheep.
This way is wrong on so many levels. Allowing Sexual Perpetrator’s to attend Gospel meeting with young families & even be Workers & Overseers, is an abomination to our Savior. Being Born & Raised in this way for generations- in no way excuses it.
This was never planned by God, it’s not of God. And more, your salvation does not depend on staying part of this Fellowship- but on getting to know Christ our Savior outside of this way. Once we seek & accept him, he lives within us & wherever we go. It does not depend on attending meetings or listening to what the workers tell you. His presence “with us” means everything.
We get to be part of the problem or part of the Solution. Doing nothing, is also making choice.
This is an excellent response, my friend. ❤️
Excellent analysis by Dr.VanDenBerg. The plain language is appreciated as it can be understood by everyone.
This is a very important question and I want to make sure we are using the correct math on this. Your analysis of the numerator or top number of perpetrators in this fraction is very important and appreciated. I’m not sure how far back in time the perpetrators are gathered from but let’s say 1950. Since it is now 2024, we are now looking at 75 years duration. I would like to get a better calculation but I believe the average brother worker is in the work for around 15 years. Many are in longer but many are in only 2-4 years. 75 years total duration/15 years avg time in work is 5 so there are approximately 5 “generations” of workers in 75 years. Total number of brother workers would be 5×245=1225 assuming no major increases or decreases of workers. (Overall number of workers have been decreasing) 160 perpetrators/1225 total male workers having spent time in the work between 1950 and 2024 = .1306 or 13.06% this percentage is shocking and horrible but hopefully gives us a better understanding on the scope of the issue.
Your math is similar to mine when I worked on this awhile ago and compared to the RCC and other church groups. 3-4X the RCC is a more reasonable estimate than 10X. Thanks for crunching those numbers. The bottom line is that anything higher than the RCC is hugely problematic.
The 160 count on those with accusations is a new number to me. I thought it was around 60 worldwide, 50 in North America but that was my count. 50/1225
Cray,
How do the Ira Hobbs / Eldon Tenniswood’s, Leslie White, & others with a long history in the ministry change the calculations? Not being strong in such Math any longer, I really wondered.
They are each just one person in the statistics that unfortunately got away with abuse far longer than they should have.
Thank you for providing this in-depth analysis. One other factor of why there is a significant higher incidence of child sexual offenders is do atypical requirements/demands result in atypical behaviors. We have met many kind and trustworthy workers, but have also met a high incidence of atypical worker in terms of social abnormalities and limited boundaries.
I appreciate the math calculations, and am wondering if anyone has crunched numbers going back the 100 years or so for the entire church? (To include all people attending meetings, both male and female.)
I’ve heard various numbers of total professing folks of around 75,000, if you figured that people professed for 25 years on average, the total population would be 4×75,000 or 300,000. 1000 perps amongst 300,000 or 333/100,000 population would be .33% or less than half of one percent. This rate is approximately half of the per capita sex offender population of the state of Oregon which has the highest % and could therefore be considered the most strict by definition. Overall, I believe there are far less potential sex offenders in a gospel meeting than would be in a comparably sized population anywhere else. However it pays to be careful everywhere! Especially with your children.
I agree with YOUR math. Maybe I’ve spent more time amongst the heathen than some who have lived a more sheltered existence, but the random dangers of pedophilia, any kind of sexual abuse or child abuse, are FAR greater out there in the real world amongst the real people and society i. general, than will ever be risked at a gospel meeting, convention, bible study or Sunday worship.
Even child grooming in our public schools, depending on where you live. Facts, for the non-believers. Get out and about, pay close attention if you are unsure.
To John E. VanDenBerg, Ph.D.:
As someone who specialized in sex offender treatment in prison settings, I provided training for members of the ministry after the news of Bruergate broke. Initially I was hopeful they would be open to the education, and subsequently do the right thing.
I made many of the same recommendations that you detailed out in your post. I especially underscored this fact: “What is safe the victim/survivor, is safe for the sex offender.” In other words, I gave an extremely clear message that sex offenders should NOT be present amongst ANY member of their selected victim population. To do so would trigger them, period.
Clearly, the ministry leadership chose not to heed this information and, in fact, did the opposite. You mentioned that part of the church’s philosophy is to forgive if the sinner repents. But the ministry and current fellowship is NOT focusing on the fruit of repentance. Instead they are just giving the perpetrators a pass.
The steps of Authentic Repentance looks like this:
1. Honesty is the first step. Break through your denial. Take RESPONSIBILITY for yourself. That means acknowledging and owning what you’ve done. Do not come up with EXCUSES or displace BLAME on the victim. Admit to exactly how many victims you have had. A good example: “I have assaulted 46 victims, and it was wrong.” I am WILLING for any/all consequences that my behavior has earned.
2. Show true REMORSE. Saying you’re sorry because you got CAUGHT is not true remorse. SORRY is as SORRY does… Make a true commitment within yourself to never victimize anyone again. This means learning to get your needs met in a healthy, non-victimizing manner.
3. Try to REPAIR the damage you’ve caused. The aftermath of molestation and sexual assault is often irreparable. However, you can still put forth the effort to make things right. Paying for the victim’s therapy is a start {= Restitution}. You OWE it to all you have impacted to strive for “Restorative Justice” (System of criminal justice which focuses on the rehabilitation of offenders through reconciliation with victims and the community at large. Be willing for mediation IF your victim requests it.) NEVER CONTACT YOUR VICTIM(S) DIRECTLY YOURSELF! In restorative justice, the main questions are: Who was harmed? What are their needs?Whose obligations are these?
4. Be WILLING to GO to ANY lengths to make sure you do not REPEAT the offending behaviors. Do not place yourself in an environment that has triggers. (Not creating any more victims is a must!) Enter the recovery process, have a plan, and stick with it. Allow for supportive surveillance in your life.
So, in summary:
1. A repentant Person Is Appalled by their Sin.
2. They Make Amends.
3. They accept the Consequences for their actions, even incarceration.
4. They Don’t Expect or Demand Forgiveness from their victim(s).
5. They Feel the Depth of the Pain They’ve Caused.
6. They Change Their Behavior.
7. They Grant Space to Heal.
8. They’re Awestruck by Forgiveness.
Clearly this ministry is not repentative either…
Thank you SO much for making this all very clear, my friend❤️ Well stated.
This is a well written article and spot on! Thank you Dr.Van den berg!
I appreciate every effort to keep these things in front of people, so they understand how horrific this all is. Is this just the numbers that Wings For Truth has? I know Cynthia from AFTT has posted 910 predators this past June (it hasn’t been updated so we know the number is higher than that), and she has repeatedly stated that the ministry category is 40% of that number, which would mean there’s 364+ workers who have sexually abused. The next largest group is the elders at 20% who have sexually abused, and the last 40% is all the other categories combined (relatives, friends, etc.). Please remember, this criminal behavior is only one part of the corruption of this organization.
These numbers were provided to us by Cynthia at AFTT.